2011 Preview Stories

WEEK 11 PREVIEW: BEARCATS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDEFEATED

Game could be WVU’s last gasp in title race

By Raphielle Johnson

The games in November are the ones that people tend to remember, and the stakes are increasing in the Big East race. Cincinnati (7-1, 3-0) has a one-game lead over Louisville in the loss column, but it’s more like a two-game lead due to the fact that the Bearcats won the game between the two. That puts even more pressure on West Virginia (6-3, 3-2), who would find themselves essentially out of chances with a loss on Saturday (Noon, ABC) at Paul Brown Stadium. The Mountaineers have lost two of their last three games, and the defense hasn’t looked good in any of those contest. If Dana Holgorsen’s team wants to entertain any thoughts of handing Cincinnati their first conference loss, the defense that is last in the Big East in scoring defense and 7th against the run needs to step up.

Zach Collaros and Cincinnati look to remain undefeated (Photo Credit: Cincinnati Enquirer/Joseph Fuqua II)

“Our job defensively is to do a good job of stopping the run, keep the quarterback in check and make sure we tackle,” said Holgorsen earlier this week. “We had way too many missed tackles last week, which is a mindset thing. We had way too many missed tackles.”

Cincinnati is second in the Big East in rushing offense with an average of 194 yards per game on the ground, and senior running back Isaiah Pead combines with quarterback Zach Collaros to provide the bulk of those yards. Cincinnati’s spread attack has done a good job of opening up running lanes, but there’s still more that the Bearcats can do with the pass. In Anthony McClung, D.J. Woods and Kenbrell Thompkins the Bearcats have a solid trio on the outside, and freshman Alex Chisum has played well in recent weeks. Against Jeff Casteel’s 3-3-5 the Bearcats should have opportunities to make plays down the field, because the Mountaineers haven’t done their best in the trenches of late.

WVU has just 14 sacks on the season, last in the Big East and ten worse than the UConn and Syracuse, who are tied for 6th in the conference with 24 sacks. Cincinnati on the other hand has been the best in the conference when it comes to protecting the quarterback with just 11 sacks allowed. The battle up front on both sides of the ball could determine the outcome, and Cincinnati looks to have the edge in that department. Defensive tackle Derek Wolfe has been one of the best defensive players in the conference this season, and while WVU’s offensive line has been solid protecting Geno Smith the run game has had its share of issues. Dustin Garrison had his moments early in the season and Shawne Alston performed well in the win at Rutgers, but the consistency isn’t always there.

These are the top two scoring teams in the Big East, which lends itself to a high-scoring affair, but the combination of line play and turnover margin (CIncinnati leads the conference with a +13 margin) may ultimately be the difference.

Pick: Cincinnati 38-34

Friday 8 PM (ESPN2): USF (4-4, 0-4) at Syracuse (5-4, 1-3)

USF looked to be well on their way to snapping a three-game skid as they led Rutgers 17-3 halfway through the fourth quarter. But the Bulls let the game slip away, falling 20-17 in overtime and now bowl eligibility could be in serious doubt with another loss. Syracuse also goes into this game on a downward trend as they’ve dropped games to Louisville and Connecticut after their blowout win over West Virginia. Who bounces back on Homecoming Weekend at Syracuse? That’s all going to come down to which team capitalizes on their good fortune. UConn turned the ball over five times in the first half last week but the Orange were unable to take advantage and it cost them dearly.

The Orange are third in the conference in turnover margin and the Bulls 4th, but both quarterbacks haven’t played to their expected level in recent weeks. USF’s B.J. Daniels is second in the conference in passing while Syracuse’s Ryan Nassib ranks fourth, and the two are close with regards to pass efficiency. Despite the lack of major playmakers on the outside the passing games should be fine. The difference could come on the ground, as USF leads the Big East in rushing while Syracuse ranks 7th. But the Bulls could be without the services of Darrell Scott due to a concussion and a wrist injury, leaving the job to Demetris Murray.

Two of the better defensive linemen in the conference will also be on display in USF’s Ryne Giddins and Syracuse’s Chandler Jones, and the front sevens for both teams will need to be at their best. If Syracuse can run the ball consistently with Antwon Bailey that should set up tight end Nick Provo in the passing game. But if not the door swings open for the Bulls. Syracuse hasn’t played to their potential of late while the Bulls haven’t shown themselves capable of closing the door in close games. Something has to give in the Carrier Dome.

Pick: Syracuse 24-23

Saturday Noon (Big East Network): Pittsburgh (4-5, 2-2) at Louisville (5-4, 3-1)

Pittsburgh had a 10-point lead on Cincinnati last week and looked to be well on their way to making things interesting in the Big East standings. But the Panthers failed to close the door, ultimately losing by three to the first-place Bearcats. But just as important as the conference race is the fact that Pittsburgh now has five losses, and they can’t afford more than one the rest of the way if they’re to reach bowl eligibility. That position is a contrast to that of Louisville, who has won three straight games and remain a player in the title race. Optimism once again surrounds Charlie Strong’s program, and Senior Day is a sellout from an attendance standpoint. Can the Cardinals take advantage?

The answer to that question likely depends on Pitt QB Tino Sunseri, who has alternated flashes of brilliance with moments of ineptitude that boggle the mind. When Sunseri’s on he’s making quick decisions with the football and the offense plays at the high octane level that head coach Todd Graham expects. But when he’s off things slow down, something the Panthers can ill-afford with a banged up offensive line and Ray Graham done for the season. Louisville’s been good at getting after quarterbacks in recent weeks, and Dexter Heyman and company are more than capable of making things tough on Pitt.

Louisville’s also gaining confidence offensively, with Teddy Bridgewater making sound decisions under center and the running game has improved as well. Which rusher steps up for Louisville? Maybe it’s senior Victor Anderson, but sophomore Jeremy Wright and freshman quarterback Dominique Brown are also solid options. Their offensive line has come together with some tinkering and the return of center Mario Benavides, but they could have their hands full with Pitt’s talented front four. The offensive line that shows up and protects its quarterback will ultimately determine the outcome, but there’s something to be said for Louisville’s play of late.

Pick: Louisville 28-23

Saturday 3:30 PM (CBS Sports Network): Army (3-6) vs. Rutgers (6-3, 3-2)

The Black Knights and Scarlet Knights will get together at Yankee Stadium this season, but rest assured last year’s meeting at the Met Life Stadium will also be discussed. In that game Rutgers defensive tackle Eric Le Grand was paralyzed, forging a bond between the two institutions that has lived on to this day. Head coach Greg Schiano has cited the amount of support that Army head coach Rich Ellerson and his program have given Eric, and Rutgers will wear special helmets in tribute to both Army and military veterans on this holiday weekend. As for the game itself, Rutgers comes in on a high following their comeback win over USF and they’ll have a new quarterback as well.

Chas Dodd, who began the season as the starter, returns to the top of the depth chart after replacing the ineffective Gary Nova in the fourth quarter last week. Nova’s issue was decision-making, something that should improve with Dodd given the fact that he’s got a year of experience under his belt. WR Mohamed Sanu has been outstanding all season long but Quron Pratt has come on over the last month or so. The key for Rutgers offensively will be to run the ball well, and in addition to Jawan Jamison and Jeremy Deering look for more touches for Joe Martinek against Army.

Defensively the Scarlet Knights will face the nation’s top rushing offense, as Army averages 365.8 yards per game on the ground. QB Trent Steelman has missed the last two games and is listed as doubtful for Saturday, meaning that Max Jenkins will be the man under center if Steelman can’t go. Jenkins and the Black Knights got off to a good start at Air Force last week but they were unable to sustain their first quarter play, falling 24-14. Rutgers will also have to deal with RB Raymond Maples, but will it help that they’ve already taken on an option attack in Navy? That’s the hope amongst Rutgers fans, and it ultimately could be the difference in a tight contest.

Pick: Rutgers 21-17

Record: 34-20 (2-2 last week)

BIG EAST WEEK 10 PREVIEW: ALL 8 IN ACTION

Matchups should offer clarity to title race

By Raphielle Johnson

For the first time this season all eight Big East football teams will play on Saturday, and the four matchups will go a long way in determining the path that the title race takes. But the matchup with the most on the line will also be watched for reasons outside of football as Louisville (4-4, 2-1) heads east to take on West Virginia (6-2, 2-1) in a noon matinee (Big East Network). West Virginia was the choice of the Big 12 to be their 10th member with Louisville being the programs generally thought to be the second choice, but that motivation is more for the fans than the players or coaches. All directly involved in Saturday’s game understand what’s on the line: the winner remains in the thick of the Big East race while the loser will need a lot of help to snag the conference’s BCS bowl berth.

Shawne Alston rushed for a career-high 110 yards last week(Photo Credit: All-Pro Photography/Dale Sparks)

“You have to tell them that this is what you are going to walk into and this is what you have to be aware of,” Louisville head coach Charlie Strong said of the challenge that awaits in Morgantown. “Know this: they can’t come out of the stands. The game is played on the field and they can say whatever they want.”

That crowd will pose a serious test for freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who has been sound from a decision-making standpoint for much of the season. Bridgewater has completed 63.3% of his passes on the season, and while he’s 9th in the Big East in passing yards per game Bridgewater has kept the Cardinals in games. What’s helped Louisville the last two weeks is their improvement running the football, which has taken some of the pressure off of Bridgewater. Backs Jeremy Wright and Victor Anderson have improved their production, and that will have to continue on the road against the West Virginia defense.

But if the Cardinals have to throw the football one would think that tight end Josh Chichester would figure prominently in the game plan. Two weeks ago Syracuse was able to expose the WVU secondary to the tune of four touchdown passes to their tight ends with Nick Provo catching three. That could happen once again given the athletic ability of Chichester, who’s been the second-best tight end in the conference to date. Louisville can also call upon receivers Michaelee Harris and DeVante Parker for production, but the most important ally of the Cardinals may end up being the clock. If they can keep possession of the football the West Virginia passing attack won’t be on the field, and that would be a bonus.

“They have a good, experienced quarterback in Geno Smith,” said Strong. “You look at (Tavon) Austin and (Stedman) Bailey, guys who they can get the football to and guys who can make plays with the ball in their hands.”

That’s the challenge for the Louisville defense, which ranks among the best in the Big East as well as the nation. Led by linebacker Dexter Heyman, Louisville is first in the conference in both scoring and total defense, and they’ve performed well against both the pass and the run as well. West Virginia has a few options to turn to on the ground, with the quicker Dustin Garrison giving way to power back Shawne Alston in last week’s win at Rutgers that featured a snowstorm. And the wide receivers need little introduction, with three Mountaineers ranking among the top five in the Big East in receiving yards per game.

Vance Bedford’s defense will have to get after Smith and not allow him time to get comfortable in the pocket. Syracuse was able to get after the junior and as a result he had a long night in the Carrier Dome. If Greg Scruggs and the Louisville front four can win the battle in the trenches this becomes a tough game for West Virginia, who hasn’t always shown themselves to be the most physical team in that department. Dana Holgorsen’s team may be a product of the spread, but they’re going to have to show off the ability to play hard-nosed football against Louisville. Whether or not the Mountaineers can do so will be the deciding factor in the Big East race.

Pick: West Virginia 31-21

Noon (ESPNU): Syracuse (5-3, 1-2) at Connecticut (3-5, 1-2)

Many have referred to this game as the “Paul Pasqualoni Bowl” due to the first-year UConn head coach’s tenure at Syracuse, but that connection means nothing compared to both teams needing a win to retain any hope of getting back into the Big East race. Syracuse followed up their best game of the season with arguably their worst effort in a 27-10 loss at Louisville as the Cardinals won the battle at the point of attack all afternoon. But this could be a bounce-back week for Ryan Nassib and company as UConn’s defense has struggled to carry an offense that’s been poor for much of the year. The Huskies are 7th in the Big East in total defense, and while the rushing defense has been adequate the pass defense has not.

The linebackers were the players exposed in the Huskies’ loss at Pittsburgh, and that could be a problem given how much Syracuse depends on tight end Nick Provo in the passing game. With the wide receivers struggling to play consistent football Provo has been Syracuse’s most consistent threat, and running back Antwon Bailey had four straight games of 100 rushing yards or more before last weekend. Syracuse will move the football provided they take care of it, but will the Huskies? Johnny McEntee hasn’t threatened a defense through the air since their loss to Western Michigan, and it could be getting close to the point where fans get louder in calling for a change at the position.

Running back Lyle McCombs has been UConn’s most consistent offensive performer but the truth is that the redshirt freshman needs help. Whether or not he receives it will play a major role in the outcome not just on Saturday but throughout the remainder of the season. From BCS representative to home for the holidays? That’s a definite possibility given their struggles on offense, and UConn could find themselves needing to win out in order to go bowling after Saturday.

Pick: Syracuse 24-13

7 PM (ESPNU): Cincinnati (6-1, 2-0) at Pittsburgh (4-4, 2-1)

Two years ago at Heinz Field these two programs put on a show for the ages with the Big East title on the line, as Cincinnati won a nail biter in the snow. The stakes aren’t as high this time around but a Pittsburgh win would throw the Big East race into chaos. That became a lot tougher with the loss of running back Ray Graham, who tore his ACL in the Panthers’ win over Connecticut last week. Into his role steps senior Zach Brown, who transferred in from Wisconsin with the expectation being that he’d supplement Graham’s efforts. Brown’s got the experience and ability to get the job done, and head coach Todd Graham has some young backs he can call on as well.

But Pittsburgh’s hopes will ultimately come down to the play of quarterback Tino Sunseri, who has been inconsistent for much of the year. Sunseri set a Heinz Field record for passing yards in the win over UConn while also proving to be a threat on the ground. That will be tougher against an opportunistic Cincinnati defense led by linebacker JK Schaffer and defensive tackle Derek Wolfe, and the Bearcats lead the Big East in rushing defense. But they’re also 7th in the conference in pass defense, so the question on Saturday night could end up being whether or not Sunseri can win the game with his arm.

Cincinnati quarterback Zach Collaros has struggled at times as well, but he’s still got his star running back in senior Isaiah Pead. Pead is 3rd in the Big East in rushing yards per game, and he’s also a good receiver out of the backfield. The wide receivers are talented and tough to corral in the open field, which could be an issue for a Pitt secondary that sits in the middle of the pack when it comes to defending the pass. Defensive tackles Chas Alecxih and Myles Caragein will need to control the interior if Pitt is to slow down a Cincinnati run game that’s tops in the conference in rushing offense, but overall it’s going to be a tough night for the defense. Look for this to be a high-scoring affair.

Pick: Cincinnati 38-31

7 PM (ESPN3): USF (4-3, 0-3) at Rutgers (5-3, 2-2)

Just one team in the Big East is winless in conference play, and the USF Bulls can only blame themselves for that distinction. Skip Holtz’s team has dropped close games to both Cincinnati and Connecticut, and their game at Rutgers looks to be another close contest as well. B.J. Daniels and the rest of the offense had a week off to fine-tune things, and even with Sterling Griffin likely out USF has enough tools to get the job done. But can they avoid shooting themselves in the foot? That’s the question for USF, and it goes for Rutgers as well following their four turnovers in last week’s loss to West Virginia.

The Scarlet Knights went into that game leading the nation in takeaways, only to have a turnover margin of minus-3 in the 41-31 defeat. Freshman quarterback Gary Nova is the player that Rutgers needs to keep track of when it comes to taking care of the football, as he threw two interceptions and lost two fumbles in that loss. The play of running backs Jawan Jamison and Savon Huggins could go a long way in that regard, as the more productive they are the less Rutgers has to lean on Nova. This matchup also provides a fun battle between the Rutgers wide receivers, led by Mohamed Sanu, and the USF secondary that some thought could be the best in school history when the season began.

To say the least neither unit has lived up to the preseason hype thus far in spite of occasional moments of brilliance (Sanu notwithstanding), and where the two teams sit in the bowl pecking order once the season ends will be determined by this matchup. Rutgers has been very good at forcing turnovers while USF is fourth in the Big East in turnover margin, and that could be a key in New Brunswick. But if Rutgers can’t run the ball consistently they could be in trouble despite playing at home.

Pick: Rutgers 21-20

TWO LEAGUE GAMES ON SATURDAY SLATE

Key battle in New Brunswick highlights schedule

By Raphielle Johnson

With Pittsburgh beating Connecticut on Wednesday night the Panthers kept themselves in the top half of the Big East race. The question for Saturday is who else will do so, with both games featuring teams with one league defeat to their credit already. The game that will be under the spotlight is West Virginia (5-2, 1-1) heading north to take on a Rutgers (5-2, 2-1) team that could have taken control of the race last week (3:30 PM, ABC). But freshman quarterback Gary Nova was picked off three times in the 16-14 loss at Louisville, snapping the Scarlet Knights’ four-game win streak.

Mohamed Sanu will be the focus of the WVU defense (Photo Credit: Francis Micklow/Newark Star-Ledger)

The Mountaineers don’t come in hot either as they were blown out at Syracuse last Friday night. West Virginia had another slow start, but unlike prior games the offense wasn’t able to flip the switch and there were multiple breakdowns in the secondary as well. Which team can bounce back in a critical contest to remain a game back of Cincinnati in the loss column? Given the state of the Big East anything can happen, but if history is to be the judge West Virginia has a major advantage in this matchup.

West Virginia has won the last 16 meetings in the series and for the most part the games haven’t been particularly close, with the Mountaineers holding a 32-4-2 series edge. Rutgers has been close in two of the last three meetings, including a 24-21 loss at home in 2009. But last year’s meeting, a 35-14 WVU win in Morgantown, featured Geno Smith throwing for 352 yards and a touchdown against a Rutgers pass defense that was more experienced than this current group. But led by corners David Rowe and Logan Ryan the Scarlet Knights have steadily improved against the pass, and if Smith isn’t smart with the football the league’s best pass defense can take advantage.

But the best way for teams to slow down the West Virginia offense is by way of the blitz, something that Syracuse did with great success last week. Smith had little time to throw the ball even in the shotgun, and that could once again be a problem. Rutgers is the Big East’s second-best team in terms of sacks with 24 through seven games, with defensive end Justin Francis and defensive tackle Scott Vallone being the leaders up front. Add in linebackers Khaseem Greene and Steve Beauharnais and you’ve got a front seven that can run and get after opposing quarterbacks.

“Rutgers is the same type of team as Syracuse. They’re well-coached and they play hard,” said WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen earlier this week. “The thing most impressive about their defense is how hard they play and how aggressive they are to attack the ball to get the ball out. They lead the nation in turnovers – they’ve got 25 of them.”

Turnovers will be critical for the Rutgers defense because it’s tough to see the offense being able to keep up with the Mountaineers in a shootout. But in wide receiver Mohamed Sanu the Scarlet Knights have one of the best offensive players in the Big East, and with 65 catches through seven games he’s by far the leading wide receiver. No matter what opposing teams have thrown at the junior he’s been able to get open, and in spite of the Mountaineers’ quality in the secondary he’s going to get his catches. The key to winning will be the other Rutgers skill position players, especially the running backs.

The Scarlet Knights have struggled mightily to run the football, ranking last in the Big East in rushing offense by a solid margin. But West Virginia has had its issues stopping the run as they’re last in the conference in rushing defense. And there’s no Chris Neild in the middle of the defensive line in Jeff Casteel’s 3-3-5, which has led to openings on the ground. Jawan Jamison and Savon Huggins are the players that Greg Schiano will call on to run the ball, and they have the ability to make plays on the ground. How Rutgers does in this department will likely determine the outcome of the game.

“When we line up and get hit in the mouth, what are we going to do,” asked Holgorsen. “Last week, we didn’t do anything. This week, we need guys to step up and be the ones that are going to hit people back in the mouth. That’s called football.”

West Virginia brings plenty to the table at the skill positions, especially wide receiver with the likes of Tavon Austin and Stedman Bailey. But if Geno Smith doesn’t have the time needed to get them the football they can be neutralized. If Smith is picking himself up off the ground frequently Rutgers has a shot to beat the Mountaineers for the first time since the Doug Graber era. But if not it’s going to be more of the same at High Point Solutions Stadium.

Pick: West Virginia 31-23

Noon: Syracuse (5-2, 1-1) at Louisville (3-4, 1-1) Big East Network

The first of the two Big East games on Saturday matches teams who picked up their first conference win of the season last week, albeit in different ways. Syracuse put forth their best performance of the season in a 49-23 romp over West Virginia, but they need to have that game out of their systems when dealing with a young Louisville team that knocked off Rutgers last week. The key for the Cardinals was a running game that woke up to the tune of 187 yards, with Jeremy Wright leading the way with 108.
Wright’s effort was Louisville’s first 100-yard rushing game of the season, and if they can build off of that performance the Cardinals will be a tougher team to slow down.

Louisville ranks 7th in the Big East in passing offense and 8th in scoring offense, two areas that have been heavily influenced by their youth at quarterback in addition to the run game. Teddy Bridgewater has improved by the week under center, and he’s got some capable targets to throw to led by tight end Josh Chichester and wide receiver Josh Bellamy. But this will be a tough matchup for Bridgewater given how effective Scott Schafer’s defense was at getting to West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith. Chandler Jones made his return to the Syracuse defense and all he did was win Big East Defensive Player of the Week honors.

Keon Lyn leads a secondary that’s improved in recent weeks despite still ranking last in the conference against the pass, made that much better by a front four that can get to quarterbacks in a hurry. Louisville’s offensive performance on Saturday likely rests on the shoulders of their offensive line, which has played better thanks in part to the return of center Mario Benavides. If the Cardinals can pick up blitzes and mix in the run there should be opportunities down the field for Bridgewater and his receivers. Whether or not he takes advantage will play a major role in the outcome.

As for the Syracuse offense, Ryan Nassib had his best game of the season with four touchdown passes and no interceptions in last week’s win. Nassib’s done a good job of taking care of the football as he’s thrown just four interceptions on the season, and in tight end Nick Provo he’s got the best in the Big East to throw to. Provo caught three touchdown passes against West Virginia, and while Vance Bedford’s defense will likely be more aware of the senior he’ll be able to make some plays for the Orange.

And there’s also senior running back Antwon Bailey, who has rushed for 100 yards or more in each of the last four games and ranks fourth in the Big East in rushing. But Louisville has done a good job in recent meetings of slowing down the Orange, and they’ve won the last two meetings in the series. The Cardinals have gotten after the Orange defensively, but this Syracuse group looks to be far better equipped to deal with Louisville than they have been the last two years.

“Pressure, man-to-man, running the football, pounding it,” said Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone on what the Cards have done against them. “It’s not a secret. Those guys have done a good job of that and they’ve been able to beat us. We’ve been inconsistent in handling those things, so those are the challenges that we’re faced with.”

The game plan for Syracuse is pretty simple: run the ball effectively while turning Louisville into a one-dimensional team on the other side of the ball. The same can be said of the Cardinals, but given the experience it may be tougher for them to accomplish that.

Pick: Syracuse 20-14

HUSKIES, PANTHERS MEET IN CRUCIAL LEAGUE GAME

Winner picks up key Big East win

By Raphielle Johnson

Big East football is on the menu for Wednesday night, with the matchup featuring a pair of teams who can still realistically have designs on winning the conference title. Connecticut (3-4, 1-1), who beat USF in their last game despite failing to score an offensive touchdown, hits the road to take on Pittsburgh (3-4, 1-1) at Heinz Field. The biggest question surrounding this contest: which Pittsburgh offense will the partisans in the Steel City see: the one that clicked on all cylinders in a dominant showing against USF, or the one that’s sputtered in losses to Rutgers and Utah?

Tino Sunseri needs to improve his play (Photo Credit: Chaz Palla/Pittsburgh Tribune-Review)

One issue that Todd Graham’s team had in the 26-14 loss to Utah was the number of touches that junior running back Ray Graham received. The goal is for the Big East’s leading rusher to get somewhere around 30 total touches throughout the course of a game. Graham had just 15 (12 rushes, 3 receptions) against the Utes, who should be credited for their play defensively. But for that number of touches to happen on a day in which both quarterbacks combined to throw for fewer than 100 yards was a bitter pill for many fans to swallow. Job one on Wednesday night will be to get Graham the football, and UConn will do its best to limit his productivity.

“Some guys are going to get past the second level of the defense, but they’re not going to get the ball all the way down the field,” noted UConn head coach Paul Pasqualoni of Graham. “If this guy gets past the second level of the defense, there is a chance the ball is going all the way to the end zone, regardless of the field position when the ball was snapped.”

In last season’s meeting, a 30-28 UConn win, Graham rushed for 75 yards on 16 carries with Dion Lewis going for 77 yards and two scores on 13 carries. Obviously Graham will get more touches than that with Zach Brown providing the change of pace when called upon. And it could be tough sledding for Pittsburgh as the Huskies rank 11th nationally in rushing defense, allowing just 89 rushing yards per game. The linebackers have been a big reason why UConn has been so good against the run, with an assist from linemen such as Kendall Reyes.

Jory Johnson (61 tackles), Yawin Smallwood (54) and Sio Moore (44) are the top three tacklers on the team, all three can run and once they arrive at the football their impact is certain to be felt. But UConn’s defensive issues are defending the pass, which could play right into the hands of a quarterback in Tino Sunseri who needs to have a good game in the worst way. Following the Utah loss Coach Graham made the decision to go with Sunseri exclusively, no longer looking to freshman Trey Anderson when the junior struggled.

“We have worked hard with him to make sure he understands what we’re trying to accomplish and to adapt some things to help him execute what we’re doing,” said Coach Graham. “He continues to have a great attitude, he works hard and I have a lot of confidence that he will play well.”

UConn allows 262 passing yards per game, and with their best cornerback (Blidi Wreh-Wilson) still out with a knee injury the Huskies there will be opportunities for Sunseri to connect with his receivers. Whether or not he can take advantage of them will play a large part in the outcome of the game. Offensively Connecticut is unable to say the same thanks in large part to a passing attack that for the most part remains as punchless as it was during their run to the Tostitos Fiesta Bowl last year. Johnny McEntee has played well in a few games this season but the win over USF was a step back for the junior signal-caller.

UConn may average more passing yards per game than Pittsburgh but at least the Panthers have some playmakers on the outside. UConn’s best receivers from a receptions standpoint are Isiah Moore and Kashif Moore, but in terms of being a true threat tight end Ryan Griffin may be that guy. Look for Pittsburgh to focus more of their attention on slowing down redshirt freshman running back Lyle McCombs, who has rushed for 705 yards in seven games. But in order for Pittsburgh to shut the Huskies down they need to force turnovers.

Pitt has forced just seven turnovers all season while UConn’s defense has 16 takeaways. Special teams and turnover margin could be the difference with neither offense consistently performing at the level required of good football teams, but the outcome ultimately comes down to the question asked at the start. If “good Pitt” shows up offensively the Panthers are a very tough team to contain. If not: they’re in trouble.

Pick: Pittsburgh 31-17

Record: 30-17 (0-3 last week)

WEEK 8 BIG EAST PREVIEW

Three conference games on the slate

By Raphielle Johnson

Another week of realignment speculation gives way to Big East football, but whether or not the attention remains on the field this weekend will depend on whether or not the Board of Curators at the University of Missouri can make up their minds. But that’s a discussion for another time, especially with the Ben Schwartzwalder Trophy up for grabs at the Carrier Dome (Friday 8 PM, ESPN). West Virginia (5-1, 1-0) heads north in search of some payback after their loss to Syracuse helped contribute to them not earning the Big East’s BCS berth. The Orange (4-2, 0-1) are also coming off of a bye week, and they find themselves with four wins despite injury issues and some consistency issues.

WVU quarterback Geno Smith (Photo Credit: Dan Friend/MSN SportsNet)

Consistency has been an issue for the Mountaineers as well, especially for an offense that has struggled with slow starts this season. Head coach Dana Holgorsen refuses to be seduced by WVU’s second half performances, and he’s let it be known that he isn’t thrilled with the offensive production. Could this be “coach speak” considering the fact that the Mountaineers average 40.8 points per game while leading the Big East in both total and passing offense by wide margins? Maybe so but it’s also an acknowledgement of the fact that it takes consistent excellence to win a championship, something the Mountaineers learned first-hand last year.

“Every game is a challenge – you have to get up for every game,” said Holgorsen earlier this week. “You have to play your best every game. Every game is going to present its own challenges. We’ll know what those challenges are this week, and we’re working hard to make sure that we accomplish what we’re set out to accomplish.”

Syracuse won last year’s meeting due in large part to West Virginia’s generosity with the football. Geno Smith threw three interceptions and the Orange scored nine points off turnovers in winning 19-14 in Morgantown, their first win on the road in the series since 2000 (and their first win over WVU since 2001). But Smith has shown a higher level of maturity when it comes to decision-making, as he’s thrown for 2,159 yards and 16 touchdowns with just three interceptions. Receivers such as Tavon Austin, Ivan McCartney and Stedman Bailey have been productive in the new offense, with all three ranking in the top four in the Big East in receiving yards per game.

Syracuse’s issue on defense has been their secondary, a unit that was inexperienced to start the season but has also had to deal with injuries to key safeties Phillip Thomas and Shamarko Thomas. Both are back and corner Keon Lyn has improved his play by the game, but this is a significant challenge for the Syracuse defensive backs. Will it help that they’ve already run into USC’s Robert Woods and Marquise Lee? That’s the hope.

“We’re healthy, and it will be a great challenge for us,” said Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone. “They have a very good receiving corps. When they catch the football, they can take it to the end zone any time.”

WVU also ranks fourth in the conference in rushing offense, with the spread’s threat of the pass opening up lanes for Dustin Garrison and the other backs on the ground. Syracuse allows just over 104 yards per game on the ground, with hard-hitting linebackers Marquis Spruill and Dyshawn Davis ranking among the better linebackers in the Big East. They may be asked to do a little more in pass coverage by coordinator Scott Schafer but the athletic ability to do so is definitely there.

Syracuse won’t be looking to get into a shootout but that doesn’t mean their offense isn’t capable of putting points on the board, with quarterback Ryan Nassib third in the Big East in passing yards per game. Nassib’s thrown 11 touchdown passes and four interceptions, with his favored targets being receivers Alec Lemon and Van Chew and tight end Nick Provo. The issue for Syracuse in the passing game has been the consistency of their receivers, including Dorian Graham. When they step up and make plays the Orange look every bit the team that’s scored 33 points or more in three of their four wins. But they also need the offensive line to open up holes for senior running back Antwon Bailey.

Syracuse ranks 6th in rushing offense, a point of concern when considering the fact that they aren’t the most prolific passing team either. West Virginia’s defensive strength lies in the secondary, so the success that Syracuse has on the ground on Friday night could determine the outcome of the game. Their issues on the ground have also played a role in the red zone offense, a category in which the Orange are last in the Big East. By comparison West Virginia leads the Big East in red zone offense and is third in red zone defense. Syracuse’s chances of winning hinge on their ability to convert their opportunities in the red zone into touchdowns as opposed to field goals along with turnovers. But it’s tough to see Geno Smith and company being as reckless with the ball this time around.

Pick: West Virginia 34-21

Friday 8 PM (ESPN2) Rutgers (5-1, 2-0) at Louisville (2-4, 0-1)

They’ve finally come to a conclusion at Louisville, with head coach Charlie Strong deciding that offensive coordinator Mike Sanford would not return to the program. Shawn Watson will take over, and give the fact that he was already the quarterbacks coach maybe this works out well for the Cardinals. Watson’s already said that he’ll incorporate parts of the West Coast offense into the attack, which could be a positive for an offensive line that’s struggled for much of the season. The quick passes that tend to be a part of the West Coast attack should also help out freshman quarterback Teddy Bridgewater, who has shown signs of growth despite the many offensive issues.

But the Cardinals are in for a tough battle on Friday night as they host arguably the hottest team in the Big East in Rutgers. Gary Nova has done well as the starting quarterback, moving the Scarlet Knights down the field in spite of a rushing attack that’s by far been the worst in the Big East. But Jawan Jamison rushed for 101 yards last week in the 21-20 win over Navy, and he’s been their best rusher this season. If Jamison can build on last week’s performance Rutgers can put forth a more balanced attack, and the same goes for their wide receivers outside of Mohamed Sanu.

Despite the extra attention Sanu still caught 10 passes for 100 yards, and on the season he’s caught 55 passes. It’s far easier said than done to keep the football out of his hands, but at some point guys such as Mark Harrison and Quron Pratt will be called upon to make big plays. While they’re definitely talented the Rutgers receiving corps hasn’t supported Sanu to the level that Greg Schiano needs them to if the Scarlet Knights are to win the Big East. But they’ve still won five of six games thanks to a defense that’s the best in the country at taking the ball away from opponents.

“If you watch their defense, they are going to bring pressure from the field, they are going to bring it from the boundary and bring it up the middle,” said Strong of the Rutgers defense. “They are hitting the quarterback and causing balls to pop out. They are hitting receivers and causing balls to pop up. They are a pressure defense and are playing really well.”

Defensive tackle Scott Vallone and linebackers Khaseem Greene and Steve Beauharnais have been in the middle of it all, and corner Logan Ryan picked off two passes in their emphatic win over Pittsburgh a couple weeks ago. To say the least it will become apparent early if the Cardinals have improved offensively, especially up front. The return of senior center Mario Benavides helps matters, but it may not be enough against Coach Schiano’s defense.

Pick: Rutgers 27-14

Saturday Noon (Big East Network): Cincinnati (5-1, 1-0) at USF (4-2, 0-2)

Cincinnati didn’t play their best football last week against Louisville, but they did enough to win the game 25-16. The same can’t be said for USF, who fell 16-10 at Connecticut and look to be in the midst of their annual October plunge. An interesting fact about the USF program is that for all their early-season success they’ve haven’t finished Big East play with a winning conference record since 2007. If Skip Holtz’s team wants to entertain any thoughts of being a factor in the Big East race this season they have to defend their home field against a team that has the conference’s best scoring offense, not to mention a defense that’s forced the second-most turnovers in the Big East.

Linebacker JK Schaffer has led the way for the Bearcats along with defensive lineman Derek Wolfe, who was outstanding against Louisville last weekend. USF hasn’t had trouble moving the football as they rank second in the conference in total offense, but they have failed to cash in on opportunities in the red zone as they’re tied for sixth in the Big East in red zone offense. B.J. Daniels got off to a hot start following the game at Notre Dame, but that could partially be attributed to the strength of schedule. On the season Daniels has completed 61.5% of his passes with eight touchdowns to just three interceptions. The decision-making has improved, but the time has come for the points to improve as well.

Cincinnati has put up points due in part to their schedule as well, with Zach Collaros not playing his best football in wins over Miami (Ohio) and Louisville. But the Bearcats have been able to account for that on the ground, with Isaiah Pead leading the league’s best rushing offense. Collaros ranks third in the conference in total offense, behind Geno Smith and Daniels, and his legs make the senior a dangerous player to defend when he’s on. But Cincinnati needs more from him through the air if they’re to both take advantage of a talented receiving corps (D.J. Woods, Anthony McClung and Kenbrell Thompkins) and contend for a Big East title. It’s going to be tough against a USF secondary that could make a case for being the best in the conference, especially one that should have a sense of desperation.

Desperation. That’s what the game will boil down to for USF, who all of a sudden finds themselves staring at an 0-3 league record. Cincinnati’s won the last two meetings in Tampa so there won’t be any reason for them to believe that they can’t win at Raymond James Stadium. The key for USF: red zone opportunities. If they cash in on their chances the Bulls have a very good chance of winning, but that goes out the window if they can’t. The defense will also need to force Collaros to win the game with his arm by taking away the run.

Pick: USF 34-31

Record: 30-14 (2-2 last week)

BIG EAST WEEK 7 PREVIEW: BACK TO THE FIELD

Keg of Nails on the line in Cincinnati

By Raphielle Johnson

Another week and another round of realignment rumors regarding the Big East. Could a resolution be coming soon? Possibly, but with the situation being a fluid one there’s no telling when this may all end. That’s the good thing about Saturdays: they move the focus back to the field if only for a few hours. Six Big East teams are in action on Saturday, with four meeting in important conference battles. The headliner: Louisville (2-3, 0-0) taking on Cincinnati (4-1, 0-0) at Paul Brown Stadium (Noon, Big East Network) with the Keg of Nails Trophy up for grabs. With the Bearcats having won the last three games in the series, a large number of Louisville players have yet to touch the trophy, and that should be more than enough motivation for Charlie Strong’s team.

The Keg of Nails goes to the winner (Photo Credit: University of Cincinnati Athletics)

Louisville hasn’t performed well on the offensive side of the football this season, and the running game has been a big reason why. The Cardinals are sixth in the Big East in rushing offense with an average of 116.6 yards per game, with Dominique Brown leading the way with 170 yards on the year. Brown was originally their “Wild Card” quarterback but the struggles of Victor Anderson and Jeremy Wright has led to more carries as a running back for the sophomore. Quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has been solid all things considered, completing 63.8% of his passes this season. The Cardinals are talented at wide receiver and tight end (Josh Chichester), but if they struggle to run the football against a defense that’s 2nd nationally in turnover margin and 5th in rushing defense it’s going to be a long afternoon.

“What’s happening to us offensively is people are able to load the box because we are not running the ball,” said Strong earlier this week. “It is making us one dimensional and we have to throw the ball. Now, they are bringing a lot of pressure and that is where you are getting the sacks and pressure from.”

The Louisville offensive line has struggled, which was to be expected of a unit that returned just one starter from last season and he’s (center Mario Benavides) been out for much of the season due to injury. Linebacker JK Schaffer isn’t called on to be a sackmaster but he’s been a key component in a defense that’s bounced back from a poor 2010. Schaffer leads the Bearcats in tackles with 35 while also picking off three passes, and as a team the Bearcats have forced 18 turnovers. But the real strength for Cincinnati has been their rushing defense, a category in which they lead the Big East. Does Louisville essentially abandon the run, something they’ve had to do in recent games since they’ve been unable to establish anything? If so, a one-dimensional outfit could play right into the hands of Cincinnati.

Cincinnati also has the second-best rushing offense in the Big East with senior Isaiah Pead leading the way with an average of 95.2 yards per game. Pead ranks third in the conference in rushing yards per game, and with quarterback Zach Collaros’ ability to run the ball the Bearcats’ spread attack is a tough matchup for any defense. Collaros also has the assistance of receivers Anthony McClung, D.J. Woods and Kenbrell Thompkins, but they rank just 6th in passing offense. Louisville is also a good defensive team against the run, ranking 10th nationally through five games. But they haven’t run into an offense that can take advantage of one-on-one situations across the board yet this season like the Bearcats, although FIU did have T.Y. Hilton in their win over the Cards.

In last year’s meeting, a 35-27 Cincinnati victory, both teams went over 400 yards of offense and Collaros threw five touchdown passes. But Louisville, who rushed for 228 yards in a losing effort, does not have a Bilal Powell (24 carries for 209 yards, 2 TD) at the ready for Saturday. That inability to consistently run the football is what will ultimately get Louisville in trouble against an improved and opportunistic defense. It’s tough to see how much different the crowd will be with the game in a pro stadium, but either way the Bearcats simply have too much this time around.

Pick: Cincinnati -13.5 (34-17)

3:30 PM (Big East Network) USF (4-1, 0-1) at Connecticut (2-4, 0-1)

Connecticut and USF have put together some thrilling finishes in recent years, with the Huskies winning each of the last two meetings with field goals in the final minute of play. But this is a far different UConn team than those two outfits, as the Huskies have struggled to maintain a consistent level of play. USF on the other hand comes in off of a bye week spent smarting over the rough loss at Pittsburgh, so it’s safe to assume that Skip Holtz’s team is more than ready to get back on the field. And while the Bulls did have the benefit of a less than strenuous schedule leading into the Pittsburgh game, they were able to move the ball against the Panthers as well.

With a talented offense led by B.J. Daniels, USF has more than enough weapons to score points on a defense that ranks 7th in the conference in pass defense and 5th in total defense. “B.J. Daniels is an excellent quarterback,” said UConn head coach Paul Pasqualoni. “They run the ball really well and he’s an excellent thrower and an excellent scrambler.” In addition to Daniels in the backfield there’s the tandem of Darrell Scott and Demetris Murray, and the Bulls are currently the Big East’s best rushing offense with an average of 223.2 yards per game on the ground. Defensive lineman Kendall Reyes is the leader up front for the Huskies, and linebacker Sio Moore has been a steady performer as well.

But the issues for UConn defensively have been in the secondary, as corner Blidi Wreh-Wilson’s knee injury has exposed this unit. USF has the conference’s second-best passing offense, and while the aforementioned schedule has played a role so has the development of Daniels. Daniels has completed 62.5% of his passes with eight touchdowns and just one interception, a far cry from his 11 touchdowns and 13 interceptions in 2010. The improved health of the receiving corps has played a role in Daniels’ development from last season to 2011, with Sterling Griffin and Lindsey Lamar being two of the key figures.

As for the UConn offense, they’ve improved some despite the recent struggles running the football. Who’s going to step up alongside Lyle McCombs? The redshirt freshman got off to a good start this season, but it;s become apparent in recent weeks that he’s better as part of a tandem as opposed to the featured guy. Losing D.J. Shoemate for the season definitely hurts, but Jonathan Jean-Louis is a capable back in his own right. If the backs can step up things should become simpler for Johnny McEntee, who has thrown the ball well the last two weeks. His critical fumble in the third quarter changed the game at West Virginia last weekend, but overall the junior was solid.

Do the Huskies have enough firepower to win this game? That’s definitely up for debate, but there’s no doubt that given the way this series has gone anything can happen. The Bulls should be hungry to remove the nasty taste of that Pittsburgh loss, but the maturity of a program that’s still looking to break through within the conference will be tested. These are the games that title contenders don’t slip up and lose. Can USF get back into the race? That question will be answered on Saturday afternoon.

Pick: Connecticut +7.5 (USF 27-23)

Noon (ESPNU) Utah at Pittsburgh (3-3, 1-1)

To say the least it’s been a roller coaster beginning to the Todd Graham era, with the Panthers following up their most impressive showing of the season with a disappointing effort at Rutgers last week. This week brings their final non-conference game of the season, as a Utah team that’s struggled of late looks to turn things around themselves. The Utes’ problems have come on the offensive side of the ball, as they’re dead last in the Pac-12 in total offense. Losing quarterback Jordan Wynn due to a shoulder injury didn’t help matters, and Jon Hays will be making his second start of the season as a result.

Hays threw three interceptions against Arizona State last week, but he may be in store for a better outing with a start under his belt. Brandon Lindsey and the rest of the Panthers up front need to get after Hays in passing situations, and force him to make plays under pressure. The good news for Hays is that he’s got some solid players to get the ball to, most notably running back John White and wide receiver DeVonte Christopher.

“John White ran hard and Jon Hays showed promise for his first outing and has things to build on,” said Utah head coach Kyle Whittingham. “We’ve got to continue working on our primary issue, which is taking care of the football.”

Pitt’s had its issues taking care of the football as well, with the Panthers throwing four interceptions in last week’s loss. Tino Sunseri owned three of those picks, and while there were issues from a decision-making standpoint the offensive line’s play did not help matters. When it comes to pass blocking there’s a lot of work to be done, because the sacks aren’t solely a matter of the senior quarterback holding onto the ball for too long. But if there’s been one thing that the Panthers have done well up front it’s open holes for Ray Graham, the top rusher in the Big East. Graham rushed for 165 yards and a touchdown last week, and his rushing average ranks second nationally. Utah knows that they’ll have their hands full with him.

“They have an outstanding tailback, maybe the best in the country,” said Whittingham. “He is second in the country in yards per game, but he’s first in total yards gained. He is a great back. The challenge for us is that he is getting about 150 yards per week on the ground, but he is also their leading pass receiver. He is doing a lot of good things for Pitt.”

Turnover margin will be critical in this contest, but Pitt’s experience at quarterback should be something they can take advantage of. But if they’re not making the proper reads and the offensive line struggles to block against a defense that ranks 19th in rushing defense, look out. In the end look for Ray Graham to make the difference, with a little help from a better Sunseri and an opportunistic secondary.

Pick: Pittsburgh -6.5 (31-24)

2:00 PM (ESPN3) Navy (2-3) at Rutgers (4-1, 2-0)

Greg Schiano’s hot Scarlet Knights look to keep things rolling against a Navy team that’s dropped its last three games and did not perform well on the heels of their heartbreaking loss to Air Force as they were blown out by Southern Miss. Rutgers whipped Pittsburgh in the second half last week as freshman Gary Nova threw two third quarter touchdown passes to get things rolling after a slow start. Nova will make the second start of his career, but the key to his long-term success will likely be the performance of the Rutgers running backs.

Neither Jawan Jamison nor Savon Huggins posted great stats last week, but they performed well enough for a rushing attack that’s by far the worst in the Big East. Those two, along with Jeremy Deering, likely hold the hopes of a Big East title in their collective hands. It also helps Nova that he’s got one of the best receiving corps in the Big East to throw to, with Mohamed Sanu leading the way. But Quron Pratt has stepped up in recent weeks, and last week Mark Harrison was heard from following a quiet start to his campaign. Harrison was one of the most improved players in the Big East last season, and if he can build on last week’s outing the Rutgers offense will be that much better.

“The quarterback needs to read [the routes] out,” said Schiano. “Mo [Sanu] saw double coverage almost the whole game again, and I don’t think that’s going to change. That will open up some other guys.”

Navy brings the always-tough to defend triple option attack, led by quarterback Kriss Proctor and fullback Alexander Teich leading what is the nation’s top rushing attack. Defensively for the Scarlet Knights it comes down to two words: assignment football. Every player has to simply do their job and not get caught out of position. If an attack like Navy’s is forced to deal with gaining just three yards or so per rush that’s a lot better than having the Midshipmen spring one for a big play. Rutgers has played well against the run, ranking 20th nationally in rushing and total defense, but this is their toughest ground test to date. Linebacker Khaseem Greene and defensive tackle Scott Vallone will be key cogs in the Rutgers defense if they’re to slow down the Midshipmen.

A fast start will be critical for the Scarlet Knights on Homecoming weekend, especially against an opponent that can do so much damage on the ground. If Rutgers can hit on a couple big plays through the air early, that should loosen things up against a defense that ranks 112th in rushing defense (to be fair, Navy has already faced South Carolina (Marcus Lattimore) and Air Force). Look for the game to be close right down to the wire, with the Scarlet Knights pulling out the win.

Pick: Rutgers -3.5 (24-20)

Last week: 3-1 straight up, 1-3 ATS

Season: 28-12 (18-18 ATS)

WEEK 6 BIG EAST PREVIEW

Focus returns to the field, first-place battle
By Raphielle Johnson

To say the least it’s been a tough week for the Big East Conference, which found out that TCU will most likely join the geographically friendlier (and from the looks of it, more stable) Big 12. And Friday’s teleconference offered nothing more than the consideration of raising the league’s current exit fee, but nothing concrete came out of the call. There have been much better days for John Marinatto’s league, which makes this a good time for the focus to return to the field.

And the best game on the schedule this week is a conference affair with Pittsburgh (3-2, 1-0) visiting Rutgers (3-1, 1-0) in a battle for outright possession of first place. Offensively the two teams come into the matchup in New Brunswick (3:30 PM, ESPNU) in far different situations. Pittsburgh put together their best offensive showing of the season last Thursday in their 41-17 win over USF, showing off the “High Octane” attack that first-year head coach Todd Graham brought with him from Tulsa.

Will Gary Nova get his first start? (Photo Credit: Richard Mackson/US Presswire)

Rutgers on the other hand won a sloppy affair at Syracuse thanks in large part to their opportunistic defense, and freshman Gary Nova took over for starter Chas Dodd at quarterback in the second half. Who will Greg Schiano call on to start on Saturday? That remains to be seen, with the coach stating that for those outside of the program it will be a game-time decision.

“I probably won’t go public with the decision, either way, till kickoff,” said Schiano earlier this week. “Two kids that are really good football players, that are great team guys, that are fully committed to this family, to this program. I just want to make sure I do what’s right by them and by the team, and that’s what I’ll do.”

Against Syracuse Nova, who hails from Don Bosco Prep, completed 14 of 24 for 122 yards and a touchdown while avoiding the catastrophic decision that would short-circuit the comeback. Dodd threw for 166 yards but completed just 14 of 31 passes, and with the quarterback position in flux Rutgers needs to get more from a run game that ranks 117th nationally in rushing offense (75.5 yards per game).

Starter Jawan Jamison stated early this week that he feels like Rutgers is ready to break out on the ground, and that’s definitely possible with the Panthers in town. Pitt ranks 6th in the Big East in rushing defense (allowing 124.8 yards per game) and last in total defense, but their biggest issue has come in defending the pass.

Jarred Holley is one of the better defensive backs in the Big East, but the key for the Panthers will be their ability to get after the quarterback. Pitt is tied for fifth in the conference in sacks with 13 sacks, and Brandon Lindsey leads the team with four. The Rutgers offensive line has improved in this area after a rough 2010, but there are still question marks up front. If they can keep Dodd or Nova upright, Rutgers will have chances to make plays down the field due in large part to Mohamed Sanu.

“They move him around quite a bit so you can’t isolate him,” remarked Graham. “He has tremendous ability. He is able to contort his body and go get balls, and make one handed catches. He is the guy that you have to know where he is at all times.”

The key for Rutgers will be for other receivers to step up, which is what Mark Harrison and Quron Pratt did last weekend. If they can get the same from those two in addition to more from Brandon Coleman (three catches on the season) and Tim Wright, look out. The talent is defintely there for the Scarlet Knights to reach their current average of 31.8 points per game. Rutgers also brings a defense that’s tied for the national lead in turnovers forced (18; Cincinnati), but they’re going up against a tough outfit in the Pittsburgh offense.

Ray Graham was outstanding against USF last week, rushing for more than 200 yards for the second time this season, and he leads the Big East in rushing by a wide margin. The junior has eight rushing touchdowns to his credit this season, and along with Zach Brown leads a run game that’s third in the conference. But Rutgers ranks third in rushing defense, and one player who’s played a key role in that is linebacker Khaseem Greene (Ray Graham’s brother).

Greene is tied for third in the Big East in tackles per game with 8.5 but he’s not the only defender that Pittsburgh should be concerned with. Defensive tackle Scott Vallone (2.5 sacks, 5.0 TFL) has played well this season, as have defensive end Justin Francis (2.5 sacks) and linebacker Steve Beauharnais (5.5 TFL, 2.5 sacks). Rutgers’ defensive area of concern is in the secondary, but even with the personnel losses from a season ago the Scarlet Knights are 3rd in the conference in pass defense and 2nd in pass efficiency defense.

That all combines to mean that Pitt QB Tino Sunseri has to make sound decisions as he did against USF, something that is more important given the opportunistic nature of the Rutgers defense. Sunseri ranks 4th in the Big East in passing yards per game but is 6th in pass efficiency as he’s thrown four interceptions. If Sunseri can get the ball to the likes of Hubie Graham, Cameron Saddler, Mike Shanahan and Devin Street on a consistent basis, Rutgers won’t be able to load the box in hopes of stopping Ray Graham.

Both teams have been solid in the kicking game, with Pitt’s Kevin Harper improving over the last three games and Rutgers possessing the ability to block kicks (blocked two last week). But the deciding factor will ultimately be turnover margin. Pitt hasn’t been particularly good at forcing them (just six forced turnovers), but the key for them will be to not hand the ball over the Rutgers and give the Scarlet Knights a short field. If they can do this, look for Pittsburgh to leave High Point Solutions Stadium 2-0 in league play.

Pick: Pittsburgh -7 (27-14)

Noon (Big East Network): Connecticut (2-3, 0-0) at West Virginia (4-1, 0-0)

Connecticut has had its fair share of problems on the offensive side of the football this season, but it was the pass defense that let them down against Western Michigan last weekend. The Broncos put up 479 yards in the air on their way to a 38-31 win, and with cornerback Blidi Wreh-Wilson still out with a knee injury this is the wrong time for the Huskies to have to face the Mountaineers.

Not only is West Virginia coming off its best offensive showing of the season, but they’re more than motivated for this game. The reason why: their loss at UConn last season cost them the outright Big East title and a BCS bowl bid, and it was the Huskies’ first-ever win in the series to boot. This all shapes up to be a bad afternoon in Morgantown for Paul Pasqualoni’s team, but at least QB Johnny McEntee played his best game of the season last weekend.

The junior has his completion percentage just over fifty percent (50.4%) following his four touchdown game against WMU, but McEntee and company will take on a better secondary led by corner Keith Tandy. West Virginia leads the Big East in both pass defense and pass efficiency defense, the reason why they rank 2nd in the conference in total defense despite being the league’s worst against the run. Lyle McCombs and Jonathan Jean-Louis have to be effective on the ground for UConn if they’re to entertain any thoughts of leaving with the upset win.

But the biggest problem for the Huskies is in their own secondary, with Geno Smith being the Big East leader in passing yards per game (341.8) and second in pass efficiency (148.0). Smith has a full compliment of receivers, led by Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Ivan McCartney, with all three ranking in the top five in the Big East in receiving yards per game.

It remains to be seen how Dwayne Gratz, Gary Wilburn and the rest of the Husky secondary covers the Mountaineer receivers, but it’s likely that defensive coordinator Don Brown will have to dial up the blitzes. But that could very well leave those defensive backs exposed, opening things up for a field day for West Virginia.

“You’ve got to hang your hat on fundamentals, on techniques,” said Pasqualoni of his secondary. “I think last week at times, we just tried to do too much. Let’s take care of what’s in front of us and what they’re doing.”

The Huskies will also need to account for freshman running back Dustin Garrison, who rushed for 291 yards on 32 carries in last weekend’s 55-10 pasting of Bowling Green. It was the first time this season that a running back stepped up for Dana Holgorsen, and the gaps are definitely there in this system for Garrison (or whoever else totes the football) to make things happen.

“If we hand the ball off and we’re fitting it upright and he’s hitting the hole and making people miss, he’s probably going to carry it 32 times,” said Holgorsen of Garrison. “He’s a little bit better than the others right now, but when (Andrew) Buie’s in there, we didn’t take him out. Same thing with Vernard (Roberts). All three of those guys are capable of running routes and catching screens and making things happen.”

Connecticut’s been strong up front, and in linebacker Sio Moore they have one of the Big East’s best. But there has to be a significant amount of concern as to whether or not they have enough horses to run with the Mountaineers for 60 minutes. Hard to see that being possible this season, unless West Virginia is once again reckless with the football. Hard to see that happening either.

Pick: West Virginia -19.5 (48-17)

Noon (ESPN2): Louisville (2-2, 0-0) at North Carolina (4-1)

Louisville played their first game after a bye week and threw away the momentum gained in their win over in-state rival Kentucky, sputtering offensively in their home loss to Marshall. That didn’t sit well with head coach Charlie Strong, and one would have to expect that the Cardinals had a spirited week of preparation for their trip to Chapel Hill. But for a team that’s struggled to run the football due in part to struggles up front, running into one of the best defensive lines in the country is not a good way to test their development.

UNC defensive end Quinton Coples gets a lot of the ink since he will more than likely be a high first round draft pick come April, but he’s not the only Tar Heel that Louisville needs to be concerned with. Defensive tackles Tydreke Powell and Sylvester Williams are both 300-pound road blocks inside, and ends Kareem Martin and Dante Paige-Moss can also get it done on the side opposite Coples.

UNC may rank just 6th in the ACC in rushing defense, but it needs to be noted that those numbers include against Georgia Tech. And Louisville is no Georgia Tech when it comes to running the football, which could mean bad things for the Cardinals. Dominique Brown rushed for 91 yards against Kentucky but was quiet last week, and the same goes for Victor Anderson and Jeremy Wright. If Louisville is to have any chance of winning in Chapel Hill, they must be able to run the football.

Offensively the Tar Heels are talented with quarterback Bryn Renner leading the way. In his first season as the starter, Renner is completing 75.7% of his passes and ranks 2nd in the ACC in pass efficiency. The wide receivers (Jheranie Boyd, Eric Highsmith and Dwight Jones) are solid and backs Giovani Bernard and Ryan Houston make for a good combo, but Louisville’s defense led by Dexter Heyman can hold their own with UNC.

But the offense is the reason why this is such an uphill battle. Multiple outlets have reported that offensive coordinator Mike Sanford is no longer with the program, a situation emblematic of the Cardinals’ problems on that side of the football. Shawn Watson has been named the new offensive coordinator. With their issues at running back and on the offensive line, that’s the last thing Louisville needs to deal with. Things could get ugly for either Teddy Bridgewater or Will Stein under center as a result.

Pick: North Carolina -13.5 (31-13)

8 PM (SNY) Syracuse (3-2, 0-1) at Tulane (2-3)

On the heels of their disappointing loss to Rutgers the Orange head to the building that’s housed a couple of historic moments for their basketball program to take on Tulane. A big reason for Syracuse’s loss were the five turnovers, with Ryan Nassib throwing three interceptions. But that was quite the departure for Nassib, who went into the game having thrown just one pick. The Green Wave have been good at forcing turnovers this season as they average two per contest, but if the Orange can run the ball they should be OK.

Tulane is allowing 168.4 rushing yards per game, so while Syracuse averages just 101 yards per game Antwon Bailey should be able to reach the 100-yard mark. Bailey fumbled twice against Rutgers, but with ball security being a focus in the aftermath of that loss he’ll take better care of the football. And the fact that his linemen would stand behind Bailey during Saturday’s post-game press conference shows that they have faith that he will bounce back.

“I didn’t know about that right away,” said head coach Doug Marrone. “We have great kids. Our kids are out there trying. They’re not trying to make mistakes. It goes to show you the type of communication and the type of accountability that they have and how we rely on one another.”

Bob Toledo’s team is strongest defensively in the secondary, with the Green Wave ranking third in Conference USA with six interceptions. Derrick Strozier and Ryan Travis lead the way with two picks apiece, but Tulane’s aforementioned issues against the run may be what Syracuse focuses on early. If Nassib can then connect with Van Chew, Alec Lemon and Nick Provo through the air, the Orange could approach the 33.4 points per game that Tulane’s giving up.

Offensively Tulane has a pair of running backs that Syracuse will need to be mindful of in Orleans Darkwa and Robert Kelley, with the latter leading Conference USA in all-purpose yardage (146.4 yards per game). But Syracuse has performed well against the run, with freshman Dyshawn Davis being one of the key contributors in the front seven. Their questions come in the secondary, but Keon Lyn has played well and as a group Syracuse has taken strides against the pass. And with the likes of Shamarko Thomas and Orlando Fisher possibly returning, a group that lacked depth becomes stronger.

“”I’m very excited about the progression of the younger players and how they’re coming along in the system, and I’m excited to get some of our veterans back,” said Marrone. “What that will do is create depth where we will not lose a lot from the first group to the second group no matter who it is.”

Also keep an eye on the Syracuse special teams, which suffered a few critical breakdowns against Rutgers. Ross Krautman missed just one field goal all of last season, but due in part to failed protections his percentage is down in 2011. Saturday night offers the Orange one last game before their bye week to remedy the issues in a game situation. Look for them to get the job done.

Pick: Syracuse -10 (27-14)

Record: 25-11, 17-15 ATS (2-4, 3-3 last week)

WEEK 5 BIG EAST PREVIEW: ON TO OCTOBER

Scarlet Knights, Orange highlight schedule

By Raphielle Johnson

Big East play opened up on Thursday night with Pittsburgh beating USF in their best performance of the season, and after Saturday either Rutgers (2-1) or Syracuse (3-1) will be tied with the Panthers atop the standings. The Scarlet Knights and Orange meet at the Carrier Dome in a noon matinee (SNY/Big East Network) with Rutgers looking to snap a two-game losing streak in the series. The good news for Rutgers is that they show up with one of the top wide receivers in the Big East in Mohamed Sanu, who caught a Big East-record 16 passes last week against Ohio.

Syracuse needs to slow down Mohamed Sanu (Photo Credit: Francis Micklow/Newark Star-Ledger)

On the season the junior has caught 36 passes, and his receptions per game average (12.0 rpg) leads the country while he’s 8th nationally in yards per game with 121.0. Syracuse may be a bit raw in the secondary but their experience in covering another of the nation’s best (USC’s Robert Woods) could be beneficial for Keon Lyn and company.

The key for Rutgers will be how the other receivers perform with Sanu likely to receive increased attention. Players such at Mark Harrison and Brandon Coleman need to step up in the passing game, something that hasn’t always happened for quarterback Chas Dodd (5th in the Big East in pass offense). Rutgers will also need to be able to run the football, something they’ve done with mixed results this season.

Jawan Jamison rushed for 97 yards against Ohio in his best performance of the season, but Savon Huggins fumbled twice and Jeremy Deering wasn’t highly effective either. Syracuse will once again be without defensive end Chandler Jones but the presence of end Mikhail Marinovich and linebacker Marquis Spruill helps matters up front. Rutgers is 6th in the conference in rushing offense but Syracuse ranks 7th in rushing defense, so something will have to give in this aspect of the game.

Syracuse hasn’t set the field ablaze offensively either, but last week’s win over Toledo was a step in the right direction especially on the ground. Backs Antwon Bailey and Prince-Tyson Gulley (Gulley is reported to be out for the season with an off-field injury) both performed well against the Rockets, combining to rush for 180 yards and a touchdown. But they will be tested by the Scarlet Knights, who have been stingy against the run in allowing a conference-best 68.3 yards per game.

For Syracuse to run the football effectively the offensive line needs to keep defensive tackle Scott Vallone out of the backfield. Vallone has 2.5 sacks and 5.0 tackles for loss on the season, and his ability to win at the point of attack can make things difficult on opposing offenses. Linebackers Khaseem Greene and Steve Beauharnais both have experience at their level, and the athletic ability to run sideline to sideline makes it imperative that the Syracuse offensive line allow their backs the opportunity to run north/south.

Syracuse has the ability to move the ball through the air as they rank 4th in the Big East in pass offense. Junior quarterback Ryan Nassib has thrown for 235 yards per game and has completed 71% of his passes with just one interception. He doesn’t make bad decisions with the football, and Nassib also does a good job of getting the ball to playmakers in the best possible positions to make something happen.

Receivers Van Chew and Alec Lemon have both shown signs of improvement as the season’s progressed, and in the middle of the field tight end Nick Provo ranks among the best in the Big East at his position. Rutgers is young in the secondary but they have picked off five passes in three games with junior Duron Harmon leading the Big East with three. Looking at these teams, this contest could come down to the wire and that would mean special teams. And Syracuse has arguably the best kicker in the Big East at their disposal.

Sophomore Ross Krautman, who was outstanding in his freshman campaign last season, has made five of six field goals on the season. But Rutgers senior San San Te has steadily improved throughout his four seasons in New Brunswick and is off to a good start to this season as he’s made six of seven with a long of 50 yards. Jordan Thomas (Rutgers) and Jeremiah Kobena (Syracuse) are both threats in the return game as well. Also keep an eye on turnover margin, a category that the Scarlet Knights have controlled in their three games (+10 margin).

Pick: Syracuse +1.5 (27-24)

Cincinnati (3-1) at Miami (Ohio) (0-3) 1 PM, ESPN3

It’s been a rough start to the Don Treadwell era in Oxford as the defending MAC champs remain winless, but there’s no better place to start turning things around than in a game against a bitter rival. That’s what Butch Jones’ Bearcats need to combat on the heels of their impressive beating of NC State; any early signs of a letdown can snowball into a real chance of being knocked off. The big difference for Cincinnati this season has been a simple one: turnover margin.

The Bearcats were by far the worst in the Big East last season with a margin of minus-15. They’ve turned that around completely through four games, as their plus-14 margin is tops in the country. Quarterback Zach Collaros is just 6th in the conference in passing yards per game but he’s thrown nine touchdown passes to just one interception, a far cry from his conference-leading 14 picks in 2010.

Running back Isaiah Pead has been outstanding on the ground (106 yards per game) and with receivers such as Anthony McClung, D.J. Woods and Kenbrell Thompkins the passing game is taken care of as well. Cincinnati is the best rushing team in the Big East with an average of 239 yards per game, and in last year’s 45-3 win over the RedHawks they rushed for 384 yards. If Miami is to have any shot of pulling off the upset one thing they must do is stop the run (allowing 175 yards per game).

Offensively for the Redhawks quarterback Zac Dysert runs the show, and it’s safe to assume that he’ll be looking for a bit of redemption as well. Dysert threw for just 165 yards on the afternoon, a number that became an issue due to Miami’s inability to run the football (42 yards rushing on 25 attempts). Dysert does rank second in the MAC in passing however, so he’s definitely a player that Cincinnati will need to keep in check.

Miami’s top targets in the passing game are Nick Harwell (Biletnikoff Award Watch List member) and Chris Givens, with the latter having 16 receptions this season. Harwell’s been banged up but the talent is definitely there, and if the Bearcats don’t keep him contained look out. Linebacker JK Schaffer and the rest of the Cincinnati defense had a good night against NC State and once again encounter a team that won’t do too much damage on the ground.

Two things can make this a tougher game than anticipated for Cincinnati: turnovers and special teams. The RedHawks rank among the nation’s best when it comes to kickoff returns (both returns and defending them), which could pose a problem for Ralph David Abernathy IV and the rest of the Bearcats. But Cincinnati may still have too much offensive firepower to be denied on the road.

Pick: Cincinnati -15.5 (37-20)

Western Michigan (2-2) at Connecticut (2-2) 3:30 PM, SNY/Big East Network

Connecticut takes on a Mid-American Conference opponent for the second consecutive weekend as they host a dangerous Western Michigan, whose two losses both came against Big Ten opponents on the road. Bill Cubit’s team will put the ball in the air early and often, which could be trouble for a UConn defense that will be without the services of corner Blidi Wreh-Wilson (knee). Gary Wilburn gets the start in his place opposite Dwayne Gratz, but the Huskies have been the best pass defense in the Big East due to the entire defensive backfield and not because of just one player.

WMU quarterback Alex Carder has completed 68.7% of his passes on the season for 987 yards and seven touchdown passes to go along with four interceptions. And if there’s one receiver the Huskies must pay attention to its Jordan White, who has caught 43 passes through four games, by far the highest number on the team. As for the Broncos’ rushing attack Tevin Drake leads the way with 201 yards on the season, and the run isn’t something that Sio Moore and the rest of the UConn defense will have to be too stressed about.

The question for the Connecticut offense is a simple one: what will they get out of the quarterback position? Johnny McEntee once again received the majority of the snaps, completing 12 of 21 passes for 213 yards and a pair of scores without an interception. Could McEntee be pulling away from dual threat Scott McCummings and true freshman Michael Nebrich? If you ask head coach Paul Pasqualoni that could definitely be the case, but McEntee will need his skill position players to step up in order to be effective.

Nick Williams was that player last week, accounting for 113 yards and a touchdown on just two receptions against Buffalo. Isiah Moore leads the Huskies with 16 receptions but tight end Ryan Griffin and wide receiver Kashif Moore will also need to contribute after quiet games last weekend. But that’s not how Connecticut will look to win games, especially when going up against one of the best pass defenses in the nation. WMU ranks 6th nationally in pass defense and 16th in pass efficiency defense, which could be a problem for a quarterback who’s completing just 47% of his passes to date.

UConn has to get their rushing attack untracked, with a key component being senior D.J. Shoemate. The USC transfer missed the first two games with a sprained ankle then returned for the loss to Iowa State, only to see just a handful of reps last week. The Huskies will need another back to go along with redshirt freshman Lyle McCombs, who has rushed for 366 yards and four touchdowns this season. If the Huskies can effective run the football they’ll be in good shape, but to say the least this is a very dangerous game with West Virginia looming next weekend.

Pick: Western Michigan +3 (Connecticut 21-20)

Marshall (1-3) at Louisville (2-1) 3:30 PM, WHAS/ESPN3

Louisville enjoyed a bye week following their win over in-state rival Kentucky and it could not have come at a better time for the banged-up Cardinals. Starting quarterback Will Stein was lost in the first half of that game to a shoulder injury, making way for freshman Teddy Bridgewater. Bridgewater performed well and took care of the football, allowing players such as Dominique Brown to make plays and lead the offensive attack.

It remains to be seen if Stein can go (he is listed atop the depth chart for this week) but at the very least Louisville will be in good hands with Bridgewater if the Miami native has to make the start. Brown has helped rejuvenate the rushing attack for Louisville, an area in which they’d struggled in games against Murray State and FIU. Brown will alternate between quarterback (in their “Wild Card” formations) and running back, sharing the load with Victor Anderson and Jeremy Wright. And the Cardinals have received solid contributions in the passing game from the likes of tight end Josh Chichester and receivers Josh Bellamy, Michaelee Harris and DeVante Parker.

Marshall has struggled at times defensively but it’s important to point out who the Thundering Herd have played thus far. A weather-shortened loss at West Virginia followed by games against Southern Miss, Ohio and Virginia Tech is nothing to scoff at. Doc Holliday’s team will be ready for this challenge, and with defenders such as defensive end Vinny Durry and linebacker George Carpenter they’ve got the talent needed to make things tough on Louisville.

The question for Marshall will be whether or not they have the ability to move the ball on offense against a Louisville defense that ranks 21st nationally in both total and scoring defense. The Thundering Herd have struggled to move the football at times, as they rank 112th in total offense and 113th in scoring offense. Linebacker Dexter Heyman will lead a fast unit that will also make a change in the secondary, with Adrian Bushell now starting at one of the cornerback spots.

Special teams will be an area to keep an eye on as well, with Marshall having the outstanding Andre Booker on both kickoff and punt return duty. Booker ran back a punt for a touchdown at West Virginia and it doesn’t take much daylight to spring him loose. Either Chris Philpott or Josh Bleser will handle the punting chores, and there will be a need for punts with good hang-time if they’re going to neutralize Booker. This can be a tough game if the Cardinals allow it to be through poor execution, but they should be 3-1 when time expires.

Pick: Marshall +11 (Louisville 21-13)

Bowling Green (3-1) at #22/23 West Virginia (3-1) 3:30 PM, Big East Network

After a disappointing loss to LSU due in large part to turnovers and poor tackling, West Virginia looks to get back on the right track before beginning league play next week. But Bowling Green will be anything but a walk in the park for the Mountaineers, who face the task of slowing down an offense that puts up an average of 468.5 yards per game. Quarterback Matt Schilz has already thrown 14 touchdown passes and 1,169 yards with just four interceptions.

Receivers Kamar Jorden and Eugene Cooper have been his preferred targets, but Dave Clawson’s Falcons can do a lot more than just throw the football. Running back Anthon Samuel is averaging seven yards per carry while Jordan Hopgood has been a solid supplementary piece. West Virginia is allowing more than 133 yards per game on the ground (328 total yards per game), and if Bowling Green can get well above those numbers it could be a longer day than expected in Morgantown.

Offensively the key for the Mountaineers will be sound decision-making from quarterback Geno Smith. Yes the junior threw for well over 400 yards against LSU, but he also threw a pair of interceptions. When Smith is making good choices with the football in terms of who should get the ball and where, Dana Holgorsen’s team is extremely tough to stop. Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Ivan McCartney have been the most reliable receiving options for WVU this season, and it’s tough to see that changing against a Bowling Green defense that’s given up 199 yards per game through the air.

West Virginia should take better care of the football this week than last, and they’ll also need improved play on special teams especially punter Corey Smith. Look for the WVU secondary and passing game to ultimately prove to be the difference against a very tough opponent despite the MAC coaches picking Bowling Green to finish 5th in the East Division. Coach Clawson’s team has shown itself to be better than that thus far.

Pick: Bowling Green +18 (West Virginia 38-21)

Record: 23-8 overall; 14-13 ATS

LEAGUE PLAY BEGINS THURSDAY NIGHT

Bulls, Panthers meet in the Steel City

By Raphielle Johnson

The final week of September gives Big East fans their first conference games of the season, with a pair of games on tap this weekend. The game that’s arguably more important with regards to the conference title race takes place on Thursday night as #14 USF (4-0) heads north to take on Pittsburgh (2-2) in front of a national audience (8 PM, ESPN). In the preseason media poll these were the two teams expected to challenge favorite West Virginia for the crown, with the Panthers picked to finish 2nd and Bulls 3rd. But while Skip Holtz’s team has looked the part for much of four games the same can’t be said for Todd Graham’s club, which has dropped close games to Iowa and Notre Dame in consecutive weeks.

USF quarterback B.J. Daniels (Credit: Associated Press)

In both defeats Pittsburgh held leads in the fourth quarter only to watch the opposition come back and snatch a win from the jaws of defeat. What are the reasons for such a tumble? One issue, that’s also plagued Pitt throughout the game, has been the performance of the offense. The “high octane” system has looked anything but for much of the season, with senior quarterback Tino Sunseri being the focal point of the concerns of many.

Sunseri’s completed 65.1% of his passes but only for 823 yards and four touchdowns to go along with four interceptions. Pitt ranks sixth in the Big East in passing offense, a big reason why they’re fifth in total offense despite the play of running back Ray Graham. The offensive line will also need to up its play on Thursday night as Pittsburgh is last in the Big East in sacks allowed with 18. For an offense of this style such a high number is way too high, and while the line may be having issues with the new system they must get better at the basics.

Graham leads the conference in rushing with an average of 127 yards per game, but the majority of that damage was done in wins over Buffalo and Maine as he’s failed to rush for 100 yards in each of the last two weeks. When opponents are comfortable in their ability to shut down Pitt through the air they can focus more on Graham, Zach Brown and the rest of the rushing attack.

USF ranks third in the Big East in rush defense as they allow 82 yards per game on the ground, but this is the best running back they’ve faced to date. Also good against the pass thanks to a talented secondary led by senior Jerrell Young, USF has the talent needed to slow down the Panther offense.

“We have to get ready to play and come out and get those past mistakes corrected,” said Graham earlier this week when discussing his team’s offense. “People ask me what do we need to do and my answer is that we need to execute our system. If we are able to do that and not turn the ball over then we are going to be successful.”

Linebacker Michael Lanaris leads USF with 27 tackles while Julius Forte and Claude Davis have three sacks apiece to lead the way in that category. One thing that USF has done well to this point in the season is force turnovers, as they are tied for second the Big East with 13 takeaways and their turnover margin of +8 is third. And the Bulls aren’t happy to just take the ball away either, as they’ve scored off of a turnover forced on defense or special teams in each of their four games. Pitt, a minus-2 in turnover margin, has to take care of the football for sixty minutes in order to take care of their home field advantage.

Offensively the Bulls have moved the ball well since their season-opening win at Notre Dame with junior quarterback B.J. Daniels leading the way. Daniels has completed 66% of his passes, good for 1,071 yards and eight touchdowns (one interception) and he’s well on his way to putting together his best season (by far) at USF from a numbers standpoint. Pittsburgh will also need to be focused on what Daniels can do on the ground as he’s rushed for 215 yards and two touchdowns.

USF has allowed just five sacks this season, a compliment to both the offensive line and Daniels’ ability to escape the pocket when pressured. That likely places some pressure on Brandon Lindsey, Greg Williams and Max Gruder, three Pitt defenders who will have more than enough chances to corral Daniels.

“They’re a big read-zone team and he does a great job with that,” said Graham of Daniels. “He also does a good job with protecting himself and you can tell he is experienced. Our job is to confuse him and keep him in check this Thursday. When Daniels starts to scramble, we need to make sure we match up the routes in our zone and don’t give up any cheap plays.”

Daniels will have ample assistance at the skill positions on Thursday, something that was tough to say last season due to injuries especially at wide receiver. Terrence Mitchell (concussion) isn’t expected to play against Pittsburgh but with players such as Sterling Griffin, A.J. Love and tight end Evan Landi, USF has more than enough options to turn to in the passing game. There’s also the versatile Lindsey Lamar, who will also factor into the return game, and Colorado transfer Darrell Scott adds a dimension at running back. Daniels, Scott and Demetris Murray all rank in the top seven in rushing, and this could be an issue for a Pitt defense that ranks sixth in the Big East in rushing defense (105.5 ypg).

USF leads the Big East in total offense and rank second in scoring offense, pass offense and rushing offense. They’ve been very difficult to stop but Pittsburgh has more defensive talent than Ball State, Florida A&M and UTEP. If Pitt’s offense can produce and keep the defense off the field (Pitt is seventh in the Big East in time of possession but fifth in scoring offense and seventh in third-down conversion percentage) they definitely have a chance to turn things around and win at home. But if not the Bulls will enjoy ample opportunities to not only win but win in convincing fashion. The winner gets a head start on the Big East title race, something that can’t be overstated given how balanced the Big East has been in recent years.

Pick: USF -2.5 (28-20)

Record: 23-7 overall; 14-12 ATS

WEEK 4 BIG EAST SATURDAY PREVIEW

Mountaineers look to make a statement

By Raphielle Johnson

It’s been a tough week for the Big East Conference due in large part to the expansion talk that’s taken over the entire nation it seems. But the conference got off to a good start to this week as Cincinnati blew out NC State 44-14 on Thursday night. But Saturday offers the marquee opportunity for the league to make a national statement, as #16 West Virginia (3-0) hosts #2 LSU (3-0) in front of a national audience (8 PM, ABC).

WVU quarterback Geno Smith (Photo Credit: Dan Friend/MSN SportsNet)

The ESPN show “College Gameday” makes its first-ever trip to Morgantown, and what’s normally a frenzied environment should be even more excited for this contest. But this is a steep challenge for the Mountaineers, who lost in Baton Rouge last season 20-14. There may not be any grass for the superstitious Les Miles to munch on (WVU’s field is FieldTurf) but he’s got one of the nation’s best defenses to rely upon.

The Tigers are second in the SEC in total defense, allowing 207 yards per game, second in rush defense and third against the pass. The defensive line is deep and talented, and in sophomore cornerback Tyrann Mathieu the Tigers have one of the nation’s best. The key for the Mountaineers on offense will be to get something of consequence going on the ground in order to slow down that front four. WVU is sixth in the Big East in rushing with an average of 78.7 yards per game, so that will be easier said than done.

“They are wherever the ball is,” said WVU head coach Dana Holgorsen about the LSU defense. “They get there really fast, and they’re pretty impressive once they get there. You can study their personnel all you want to, but they’re all capable of making plays.”

So how will the Mountaineers move the football against the talented LSU defense? They’ll need a big night from quarterback Geno Smith and his receiving corps, led by Tavon Austin, Stedman Bailey and Ivan McCartney. This trio has caught five of Smith’s seven touchdown passes, and Austin is also dangerous in the return game. Last year’s meeting turned on a Patrick Peterson punt return for a touchdown, so both teams will need to be at their best on special teams.

Offensively LSU is led by quarterback Jarrett Lee, who has been entrusted to simply not make mistakes with Jordan Jefferson serving a suspension. Lee will also have the services of a key weapon in receiver Russell Shepard, who was suspended for the first three games of the season. Along with Rueben Randle the Tigers will have a tandem that can test the WVU secondary, but Lee won’t be a gunslinger.

“It’s a physical nature,” said Holgorsen of the LSU offense. “They’re going to put in a fullback and a tight end and they’re going to get after you. If you put too many people in there, then they’re going to one-on-one you on the outsides with their talented receivers.”

The Tigers are a very physical offensive team, with an experienced offensive line opening holes for a committee of running backs who can move the ball down the field. Spencer Ware and Michael Ford combine to average 148 yards per game and have scored a combined seven touchdowns. The battle up front is one that Julian Miller, Bruce Irvin and the Mountaineers have to win if they’re going to have any chance.

To be frank, this is the contest where we’ll see how much Irvin has progressed. Considered to strictly be a “sack master” last season, the personnel losses forced Irvin to step into a larger role in Jeff Casteel’s scheme. If the front three can do their jobs players such as leading tackler Najee Goode will have the opportunity to run and make plays. But if not it could be a long night against an LSU team that’s won their last 35 regular season non-conference games.

Few are giving West Virginia a chance of winning this game, due to the disparity in conference pedigree and the fact that LSU posted one of the most impressive performances thus far in their win over Oregon. The crowd could be a factor, but the Tigers have played (and won) in front of hostile environments many times before. If the Mountaineers can stand up to the physical test they’ll run into in the trenches they’ve got a shot to pick up a huge victory.

Pick: West Virginia +5.5 (27-24)

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (Noon, ABC)

Pittsburgh (2-1) looks to rebound from a stunning fourth quarter collapse, and recapture the local fans’ attention who seem more interested in the Week 3 NFL Odds at this point, in their loss at Iowa last week, but that will be tough to do with Notre Dame (1-2) coming to town. The Fighting Irish may have picked up their first win of the season last week but don’t be fooled by the record. Brian Kelly’s team could very well be 3-0, but the reason they aren’t is a simple one: turnovers. The Irish have turned the ball over 13 times in three games and are a minus-8 in turnover margin, with five turnovers in each of their losses.

“We try to correct everything that occurs as we move forward,” said Kelly of how the Irish deal with their 1-2 start. “So we don’t go back to those things relative to what happened in the past, other than we try to correct those mistakes and then move forward.”

Tommy Rees, who took over for the ineffective Dayne Crist in the loss to USF, has completed 69.7% of his passes despite throwing five interceptions. Rees has six touchdown passes on the year, and there’s no mistaking who the top target is. Michael Floyd, one of the best receivers in the country, has caught 31 passes for 397 yards and two touchdowns in three games and slowing him down will be the priority for the Pitt defense.

But Floyd’s not the only weapon that Notre Dame looks to. Running backs Cierre Wood and Jonas Gray will both see action, with Wood being the primary ball-carrier (299 yards, 4 TDs). Pitt can look to their defensive line led by Chas Alexcih, Myles Caragein and Brandon Lindsey in slowing down the run as they’ve allowed just 80 yards per game on the ground. But the Panthers have given up 336 yards per game through the air, by far the worst in the Big East. If they can’t get to Rees up front it could be a long afternoon for that secondary.

“One thing that has hurt us is we have given up a lot of big plays on pressures and were not a team who has done a lot of that in the past,” said head coach Todd Graham earlier this week. “We are too loose in a lot of situations especially when we lost the momentum against Iowa. We had moments where blitzes were called and guys just didn’t go and execute.”

While Pitt needs to clean that up on defense, the bigger concern remains the play of quarterback Tino Sunseri. While the senior has completed 62.5% of his passes he’s thrown four interceptions to just three touchdowns. The speed at which Sunseri makes his progressions in an offense that’s supposed to specialize in quickly getting rid of the football has been an issue.

If Pitt can get things going in that area they’ll be a tough team to stop thanks to running back Ray Graham. Graham has rushed for 419 yards and six touchdowns in three games, and his versatility makes him a difficult matchup for just about anyone. Manti Te’o and company will look to slow him down and make Sunseri beat them. The question now is whether or not the senior can get the job done.

Pick: Pittsburgh +7 (Notre Dame 31-28)

Toledo at Syracuse (Noon, Big East Network)

On the heels of their first defeat of the season, Syracuse (2-1) returns home to take on a tough Toledo squad. The Rockets (1-2) have already taken Ohio State down to the wire, but they came back to earth last week as Boise State blew them out 40-15. Tim Beckman’s group will pose quite the challenge for a team that struggled at home to beat Wake Forest and Rhode Island, and the combo of running back Adonis Thomas and receiver Eric Page is a big reason why.

“They have an excellent player in [Eric] Page, who’s one of the best players in the country and an All-American candidate,” said Syracuse head coach Doug Marrone. “There is a lot of experience on the football team that is coming in here, and we’re going to have to play extremely well to beat them.”

Thomas is averaging 75.7 yards per game and is second on the team in receptions per game to Page, who catches 8.3 passes for 91.3 yards per game. Page’s ability could be an issue for the Syracuse secondary, which has struggled at times this season. The Rockets will play two quarterbacks, with Austin Dantin and Terrance Owens, with Dantin getting the start and Owens coming in off the bench.

Offensively Syracuse could be in good shape thanks in large part to quarterback Ryan Nassib, who played well in defeat last weekend. Receivers Van Chew and Alec Lemon were productive against USC and in tight end Nick Provo the Orange have one of the best in the Big East. But Syracuse needs to get their running game going, as it ranks 109th nationally.

Antwon Bailey gets the majority of the carries but he’s been under 50 yards in each of the last two games. If Syracuse can get their running game in order they’ll be that much better offensively. But that’s a big “if”, and combined with the Rockets’ not being afraid of the competition could spell trouble. Don’t be surprised if this game is close late.

Pick: Syracuse -2 (28-24)

Ohio at Rutgers (2 PM, ESPN3)

Rutgers (1-1) returns to the field following a bye week and they’ll be short a running back as De’Antwan Williams has decided to transfer. Freshman Savon Huggins was expected to see more reps beginning with this contest against Ohio (3-0), but there will also be carries for Jawan Jamison and Jeremy Deering. The Bobcats, who are looking for their first 4-0 start since 1976, rank at or near the top of the MAC in a number of statistical categories including total defense (lead the conference).

Ohio ranks 2nd in the MAC in rushing defense, which should make things tougher for the Scarlet Knights on the ground. That could put more on the shoulders of quarterback Chas Dodd and his receiving corps, as they’ll take on a defense that’s 6th in the MAC against the pass. Nose guard Neal Huynh leads Ohio with 20 tackles, and linebacker Noah Keller is solid at the middle linebacker spot.

Offensively the Bobcats list three possibilities to start at quarterback, and Tyler Tettleton has started all three games to date. In fact he’s gotten so many more chances to both throw and run with the football that it’s tough to say that it’s an “either or” situation at the position. Donte Harden and Ryan Boykin have been the leaders on the ground yardage-wise but it’s Tettleton who has rushed for three scores.

Ohio may not throw a great deal but LaVon Brazill is one player Rutgers will need to keep track of in the passing game. Defensively the Scarlet Knights have been good; despite giving up 24 points at North Carolina they did force five turnovers. They may not reach that number against Ohio, a team that’s disciplined and takes care of the football. Given the optimism surrounding the Bobcats it would not be a surprise if Rutgers were to lose. In order to avoid the upset however, they must get something from the ground attack.

Pick: Ohio +4 (Rutgers 21-20)

Connecticut at Buffalo (6 PM, Big East Network)

The focus goes from the hunt for an ACC invite to a trip to Buffalo for UConn (1-2), and they could very well head back to Storrs 1-3 if they don’t get improved play from the quarterback position. Johnny McEntee has seen the majority of the snaps but he’s completing just 44.9% of his passes, and the position as a whole has a completion percentage of 44.2%. Regardless of what Lyle McCombs and D.J. Shoemate can get done on the ground it’s difficult to move the football when you’re one-dimensional.

And the lack of offense could prove to be a problem as the Bulls (1-2) have moved the ball well behind Cincinnati transfer Chazz Anderson. Anderson’s done a solid job of running the offense, having already connected with ten different receivers in the first three games. Running back Branden Oliver has rushed for 358 yards and five touchdowns, but despite Buffalo’s talent on offense the UConn defense hasn’t been the problem despite some big-play breakdowns.

Wide receiver Isiah Moore played well in the loss to Iowa State, and if the quarterbacks can get the ball to Moore and his fellow receivers in positions where they can go on to make plays the Huskies will move the football. But as it’s been seen in three games that’s easier said than done for this group. The Huskies can’t afford to turn the ball over (eight giveaways) especially early. Look for them to narrowly avoid Buffalo’s upset bid.

Pick: Buffalo +9.5 (Connecticut 27-20)

UTEP at USF (7 PM, ESPN3)

One final tune-up for the start of conference play for USF (3-0), who has arguably been the most impressive team in the conference. B.J. Daniels tied the school record for passing yards in a game last week and could very well break it this week. UTEP (2-1) struggled last week in their win over New Mexico State, and it goes without saying that the Miners can’t afford to have their quarterback complete just 9 of 28 passes.

The Miners will likely go with freshman Jay Hall again this week, which could prove to be problematic given how well the USF defense has played. Offensively the Bulls can look to Daniels and running back Darrell Scott, who played the best game of his young USF career last week. UTEP could make things interesting for a half or so, but by the fourth quarter look for a few USF players getting some extra rest for next week’s meeting with Pittsburgh on a short week.

Pick: USF -29 (48-17)

RECORD TO DATE: 18-6 overall, 12-8 ATS

Next Page »