2009 Preview Stories, Cincinnati News, Scott Macmann, Uncategorized

2009 BIG EAST FOOTBALL PREVIEW: CINCINNATI

BEARCATS CAN’T GET NO RESPECT

by Scott Macmann

Is Cincinnati the Rodney Dangerfield of college football? You know, “no respect”….?

The Bearcats have now finished in the Top 25 two seasons in a row but once again they are locked out of the pre-season polls.

The Bearcats won last season’s Big East football championship with a 6-1 conference record, 11-2 overall regular season. They return one of the conference’s and nation’s most dynamic offenses largely intact. They have defeated their former nemeses Pittsburgh, Louisville and West Virginia. Moreover, since September 23, 2006, when they had lost to Pitt, Ohio State and Virginia Tech in back to back to back games to open up the season, the Bearcats have reeled off a record of 28 wins and just 8 losses (Oklahoma, Virginia Tech, UConn, Louisville-2, Pitt, WVU-2). The Cincinnati Bearcats should not be a surprise to anyone or overlooked anymore.

And yet, the reigning champs of the Big East return for 2009 with most pundits believing that 2008 was a fluke. However, the reality is that Cincinnati turned the corner three years ago and has only been getting better as first Mark Dantonio and now Brian Kelly have revived the 5th oldest NCAA Division I football program. Cincinnati’s successful three year run has been built on solid defense first constructed by Dantonio, and now in Kelly’s tenure by an eclectic spread offense that Kelly sometimes refers to as his “Coast to Coast” scheme since he takes ideas from anywhere that he can.

GETTING DEFENSIVE

Most of the negativity concerning the Bearcats’ chances are based on the fact that UC lost 10 defensive starters to graduation. Perhaps they think Brian Kelly is going to trot out a bunch of true Freshmen to replace them, but a look under the hood shows plenty of talent and plenty of experience (not Freshmen) waiting to take their turn.

During last season UC coach Brian Kelly became increasingly convinced that he had to change his defensive philosophy to deal with the growing threat posed by Spread offenses. Kelly wanted to switch from the 4-3 to the 3-4. But this is only partially accurate. What Kelly really wanted to do is install the Spread Defense: a defense that flexes between the 4-3 and 3-4 without substitution based on the defense’s read of the situation. Kelly’s defensive coordinator Joe Tresey apparently balked at the plan, and Kelly sent him packing. Cincinnati’s new coordinator is Bob Diaco who served under Kelly at Central Michigan. Diaco is experienced with the 3-4 and is on board with Kelly’s vision.

The defense starts with seniors Ricardo Matthews and Curtis Young who will man the front line with senior Andre Revels lining up across from the center. This trio of veterans will step into their starting positions from last years’ reserve roles with little trouble.

Young and senior Craig Carey are what Kelly calls his hybrids and will be able to rush or drop back as the situation calls for. They can put their hand down or they can go off and cause trouble. Last year’s star Connor Barwin, now in the NFL, is seen as the prototype for the role.

The other interesting linebacker story is Demetrius Jones. It wasn’t too long ago that Jones was Notre Dame’s starting QB. Jones left ND when he got benched and came to Kelly who almost immediately detected that something was wrong with Jones’ throwing motion. Kelly was right, and soon Jones was being operated on. Demetrius was given the chance to compete and play QB last season, but apparently his arm can’t handle the continued stress of running Kelly’s pass-intensive offense. Realizing it was insane to let an athlete like Jones sit on the bench, Kelly in the Spring gave Jones his marching orders to switch to linebacker. Reluctant at first, the Pied Piper Kelly clearly convinced Jones that if he wanted to get into the NFL it won’t be as a quarterback. Although it’s too early to tell if it’ll get him to the NFL, Demetrius Jones has already won himself a starting position for the Bearcats at LB and seems to be warming to the possibilities. Ask Connor Barwin, Demetrius.

The main defensive story, however, that everyone will be watching is in the defensive backfield. The secondary saw the most devastating losses with Mickens, Smith and Underwood all going to the NFL. Senior Aaron Webster is the only returning starter, but talented Drew Frey (medical redshirt) who was injured early last season returns to join him, while Dominique Battle (SO) and Brad Jones (SR) will now man the corners as starters. The foursome is already showing in camp that they are ready for prime time. Backups Obadiah Cheatham, Ruben Johnson, Chris Williams and Malik James will all provide fresh legs with varying experience too. These are not rookies though. Most have made significant contributions as backups, and now that it’s their turn show every indication they will produce.

All in all, there is reason to believe that contrary to the wishes of other Big East opponents, the Bearcats are reloading on defense, not rebuilding.

SPECIAL TEAMS WON’T BE AS SPECIAL

All-American Kevin Huber will be punting for a different Cincinnati team this Fall, and many a Bengals fan is hoping the Bengals can emulate the Bearcats winning style. The Bearcats have scrambled to find an acceptable replacement, but replacing an All-American isn’t going to be easy. Junior Jake Rodgers, who normally handles placekicking duties, appears to be the short-term solution. But the key point to remember is that punting is not likely going to be the weapon that it has been for the last two years, and that may make a key difference.

OFFENSE

The nightmare of five different quarterbacks was only a year ago, but out of that nightmare emerged a confident and capable Tony Pike. Now a senior, Pike is the unchallenged starter. In much less than a full season of games Pike put up over 2,000 yards of passing yardage. So, logic suggests he should be able to do much better with a full season to work with, right? Pike has put on weight and worked his butt off to get stronger and tougher than he was last year when he was too frail to punch it in from the one yard line thus sealing the Bearcats loss to VT in the Orange Bowl. For the Bearcats to be successful, Pike must be tougher.

Pike will have a platoon worth of wide receivers and tight ends to play catch with this season. Everyone’s darling is senior Mardy Gilyard aka “Bones”. Bones will be joined by Armon Binns (JR), DJ Wood (SO) and Marcus Barnett (JR) who will also do some moonlighting in the defensive backfield during certain situations. It will be important for all four of these wide receivers to step up so that defense’s get burned for double-teaming Gilyard, which they undoubtedly will do.

Cincinnati’s offensive achilles heel has been the run for both Kelly and his predecessor Dantonio. Although the committee system of running backs has sort of worked, the reality is that the Bearcats can have trouble moving the ball on the ground. This has particularly hurt them near the goal line, in short yardage situations, and during the fourth quarter when they have been unable to execute the typical clock-devouring end-game with rush after rush after rush.

Sophomore Isaiah Pead appeared to be the solution, but his freshman year saw limited and mostly unimpressive performances against quality opponents. On the other hand, he was a freshman. He has some speed, but his tendency is to squander his opportunities by running to the outside, rather than going between the tackles. Redshirt freshman Darrin Williams is also seen as a potential solution to Cincinnati’s running woes, but too little is known yet about what he will be able to bring to the table. So, with that said, expect to see John Goebel (JR) and Jacob Ramsey (SR) get a lot of carries as they have in the past until Pead or Williams show they are ready to take on the mission full-time with better results.

In summation, taking a contrarian view, the offense is probably more of a danger area for the Bearcats than the defense. The defense may or may not be able to match the efforts of the 2007 and 2008 squads, but they will probably be solid. The offense though will be under pressure to be “oustanding”, hobbled by a questionable rushing attack, and potentially crippled by a somewhat frail quarterback. And both defense and offense will play from weaker positions on the field due to the loss of a mighty punting weapon. Is this guaranteed? No, but my guess is that the offense is more precarious than many suspect.

PROGNOSTICATING THE SCHEDULE

The schedule will be tricky, and will require the Bearcats to fire on all cylinders to make a go of repeating as Big East champs, but it might happen.

Sep 7 @ Rutgers 4pm CLOSE – LEAN WIN
Sep 12 Southeast Missouri State WIN
Sep 19 @ Oregon State 6:45pm CLOSE – LEAN LOSS
Sep 26 Fresno State LIKELY WIN
Oct 3 @ Miami OH for the Victory Bell WIN
Oct 15 @ South Florida 7:30pm CLOSE – LEAN LOSS
Oct 24 Louisville for the Keg of Nails CLOSE – LEAN WIN
Oct 31 @ Syracuse LIKELY WIN
Nov 7 Connecticut CLOSE – LEAN WIN
Nov 13 West Virginia 8pm CLOSE – LEAN WIN
Bye
Nov 27 Illinois CLOSE – LEAN WIN
Dec 5 @ Pittsburgh for some dumb, recently invented trophy CLOSE – LEAN LOSS

Well, the first thing you see is the word “CLOSE” an awful lot. Like last year I think a lot of these games will be decided by a touchdown or less. Kelly has had a good record in these matchups, but we’ll see. Louisville is considered close because it’s Louisville, a real rivalry game.

UNLIKELY: LOSE ALL THE CLOSE GAMES: 4 – 8
POSSIBLE: LOSE HALF THE CLOSE LEAN WIN GAMES: 6 – 6 or 7-5
MOST LIKELY: WIN CLOSE GAMES LEANING WIN: 9 – 3
POSSIBLE: WIN ALL THE CLOSE GAMES: 12 – 0 (this is essentially what happened last year)

IN CONCLUSION

Most likely the Bearcats will go anywhere from 8-4 to 10-2. The defense will be sound, although not spectacular. The offense will make or break this season. The Bearcats need to be truly multi-dimensional for Kelly’s Coast-to-Coast Cat Attack to work its magic.
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